A research professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Femi Otubanjo, has suggested that any potential war involving Iran could extend beyond the tenure of former U.S. president Donald Trump, citing the historical difficulty the United States faced in previous Middle East conflicts.
Speaking during a discussion shared by ARISE News, Otubanjo argued that a ground war against Iran would be challenging for the United States due to the country’s size, population, and terrain.
“The US took eight years to extricate itself from Iraq and 21 years in Afghanistan. Iran is bigger, with double the population and landmass, and difficult terrain advantageous for guerrilla warfare,” Otubanjo said.
“A ground war for the U.S. will be difficult; they can only continue aerial bombardment, and that will not go on for too long. Trump wants to be a hero; details of U.S. mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan won’t matter to him,” he added.
Following the comments, several viewers and social media users reacted online, expressing mixed opinions about the professor’s analysis and the broader geopolitical issues discussed.
Reacting on X, user @dukemayuare, commented: “This is Prof. Otubanjọ of The Nigerian Institute of International Affairs delivering the sort of talking points we discussed on Sunday about Theocracy. The Shia (Shiites) factor and culture of Iranians. Counter-insurgency and Counter-terrorism…/1”
However, some users disagreed with the analysis. Odoabuchi Emeka (@EmekaOdoabuchi) said: “Iran will never possess the capabilities to threaten anyone in the Middle East and beyond after this. I think that is the major aim of the war, the USA will completely block its exports of crude oil that help them run their country, as they are doing in Cuba right now.”
User Vixy (@VixySammy) criticised the commentary, writing: “These will just be talking anyhow. They can’t even see the change in American foreign policies, but they’ll come out and be talking about knowing geopolitics.”
Similarly, Abbey (@MAimi4627) wrote: “He should tell us as bout the one going on in the northern part of Nigeria, Awon Onisonu.”
Another commenter, DANY (@dany_infernos), questioned the comparison made in the analysis: “Please stop bringing this ignorant set of people to come insult our sensibilities, are the dynamics at play in Iran and Iraq then thesame?”
Nkemchor Ogimejen-Arimoku (@NkemchorOA) added: “He is oblivious of who Donald Trump is.”
User El Zizu (@Zizu2023) also criticised the remarks, saying: “This one no know watin he dey talk. He should remove the amala from his mouth.”
Another commenter, @KateZuokum84475, wrote: “My prof, the war in this millennium is a cyber war & Technological one. The boots on the ground are the last stage. It was in planning 4 a long time. Trump and Israel will leave no stone unturned. A complete and total decimation. It takes a madman to do it. Trump did it.”
Meanwhile, @Morganchristoph said: “This guy is talking rubbish, believing war is a textbook or final year project research he failed to accomplish.”
@ejismarine added: “Please stop bringing all these fake analysts who call themselves professors to your station. They have no professorship with any intellectual contribution or invention to their name, absolutely zero knowledge, only talk, and the ones who can rig elections for politicians.”
Another user, @Ibelong2God_, urged analysts to focus more on domestic issues: “I don’t like when people who can’t improve their own home talk about how other people are mismanaging their home. Oga, use this analysis on the ravaging insecurity in Nigeria.”
