By Professor Fisayomi AYITA@FisayomiAyita
The current confrontation between the United States, Israel and Iran can be powerfully understood through a Yoruba proverb: *“Odò tí ó fi ojú agbára wo Kudeti, omi a gbé lọ”*—the river that looks at Kudeti with arrogance will eventually be swept away by the water.
The wisdom behind this proverb is simple but profound: never underestimate what appears small, restrained, or distant. The Kudeti River in Ibadan may look harmless in calm times, but when the rains come, it reveals a force capable of destruction.
It is a warning against overconfidence—against mistaking perceived superiority for guaranteed victory.
This appears to mirror how the Israel-US and Iran conflict began. Donald Trump reportedly projected that Iran could be subdued within five days, suggesting a belief that combined American and Israeli power would quickly overwhelm Tehran. That assumption, however, seems to have underestimated both Iran’s resilience and its strategic depth. What was expected to be swift has stretched beyond projections, forcing a reassessment of both tactics and expectations.
As the situation evolved, statements from Washington began to shift—first reflecting surprise at the duration of the conflict, then floating the possibility of deploying ground troops, an idea that met strong resistance domestically.
When that path proved difficult, efforts reportedly turned toward rallying other global powers—countries like China, the United Kingdom, and Germany—to join the effort. Yet, their hesitation underscores how complex and risky the situation has become.
Meanwhile, Iran’s response has not only been military but strategic. By leveraging its position around the Strait of Hormuz and attacking all US bases in the Gulf Countries, thereby affecting tourism, causing tens of millions of flight cancellations cumulatively, it has demonstrated an ability to influence global economic flows, particularly energy supply.
This is the Kudeti moment—the underestimated force revealing its depth. What seemed containable has instead become a pressure point for the global economy.
The rhetoric has also escalated in concerning ways. The suggestion—however indirect—of nuclear options from Israel against Iran introduces a dangerous dimension to the conflict. If conventional strength is sufficient, why raise the spectre of nuclear capability? That question alone reflects the growing strain between expectation and reality.
Diplomatically, the cracks are visible. Frustration toward allies unwilling to participate, and reports of smaller nations being approached for support, suggest that the initial confidence of going it alone has given way to a search for broader backing. It is a shift from dominance to dependence—another lesson embedded in the proverb.
At its core, this unfolding situation reinforces an enduring truth: power is not always where it is most visible. Nations, like rivers, carry depths that are not immediately apparent. To dismiss or underestimate them is to risk being overwhelmed when their full force emerges.
In the end, the Kudeti proverb is not just cultural wisdom—it is a geopolitical lesson. Arrogance in the face of underestimated strength often leads not to quick victory, but to prolonged struggle and unintended consequences.
Oluwafisayo Ayita is an Internationally Trained Lawyer, Mediator and a Conflict Coach
